A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
